Mav’s Big Fucking Oscar Predictions List – 2016 (#OscarsSoWhite Edition)

If you’re the kind of person who reads the random stuff that I write, chances are you’re also the kind of person who thinks the Oscars are stupid. Really, most people think the Oscars are stupid. They always have. This is the 88th Academy Awards, which means for 87 years, people have complained that he wrong movies get nominated, the wrong people win, they take too long, and the whole thing is a huge, self-congratulatory Hollywood circle jerk where rich, beautiful, famous people compete like dancing monkeys for the appreciation of a bunch of stuffy old white men while poor, beautiful, aspiring to be famous people fight to for the honor of maybe getting 3 seconds of television screen time by being seat fillers when one of the famous people has to get up to take a shit. And yet, you watch, because everyone watches.

If you know me, you probably know I love the Academy Awards. I always have and I likely always will. I’ve been meaning to write about this years upcoming ceremony and the #OscarsSoWhite controversy for a while. I keep putting it off because I haven’t had the time to deal with it and I didn’t really have the right angle worked out in my head for what I wanted to say about it. But the Oscars are tonight, so if I’m going to say something, now is pretty much the time. Besides, I have to do my predictions and ask other people for theirs anyway.

So first, about #OscarsSoWhite. I’ve been following the controversy the last few weeks, and as far as I can tell, the argument comes down to five basic points:

1. It’s not fair that black people aren’t recognized by the Academy!
2. The makeup of the Academy is inherently racist in the first place because it’s a bunch of old white me!
3. It’s not the Academy’s fault black people never make the kinds of movies that the Academy recognizes!
4. Black people have their own awards, so why are they bitching about these? (Fuck you Stacey Dash!)
5. Hey! Why are the black people only worrying about black people and not other people of color?

The thing is, they’re all right. Even Stacey Dash (Fuck you Stacey Dash!) is right in her own way. A lot of people have dealt with the first issue, and really, it’s the most obvious. Jada Pinket Smith has been the focal person here with her call for all black people to boycott the Oscars this year, but I think Dustin Rowles of Pajiba.com did the best breakdown of why it’s bad that I’ve seen. Number two is pretty obvious as well. CNN did a nice breakdown of the Academy make up. It’s 94% caucasian, 77% male and the median age is 62. MEDIAN! So that means there’s a bunch of people older than that as well. The third issue gets a little complex. First it ignores that the Academy ignored obvious critical darling films that seem ripe for Oscar consideration (Creed, Concussion, Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton and Dope), but also the fact that Hollywood tends to whitewash black roles. John Oliver dealt with this issue nicely on his show last weekend. Short version: It’s not just that there are no roles for people of color; Hollywood tends to give roles where race doesn’t matter to white people and often gives roles that theoretically should be of other races.

The other two are less obvious. Stacey Dash, black actress turned token negro for FoxNews (Fuck you Stacey Dash! – seriously there’s a reason I keep saying that, and I’ll get to it), has taken the point on this. Her basic claim is white people don’t get BET awards or NAACP Image awards, so why are black people concerned about the Oscars. Actually she’s wrong — Sam Smith won both of those last year and he’s pretty fucking white — but I do get her point. And the final point, what about People of Color who aren’t black? Well, institutional racism is so inherent that they don’t even really have a famous spokesperson making headlines despite hispanics actually being a bigger minority group (and bigger portion of the movie going public) than blacks.

But there’s something behind all five of these issues that people are missing. The reason Stacey Dash (Fuck you Stacey Dash) thinks #OscarsSoWhite isn’t a big deal is the same reason Jada Pinkett thinks it is. It’s the same reason the Academy focuses on white films and the same reason those who have Image awards (or even Golden Globes) still want Oscars. It’s the same reason blacks who are fighting for recognition in the Academy are ignoring the Latinos, Native Americans, Asians, Polynesians and other races who might also want that same recognition. I can summarize it very easily. Everyone wants to go to Da Club. And I still kinda want to fuck Stacey Dash.

I’ll deal with the second one first. You see, over the last few years it’s become very clear to me that Stacey Dash is kind of a deplorable human being. At least, that’s how I feel about her. Maybe some people agree with her, and good for them, but every statement that she’s made in the news since she’s started her talking head career kinda makes me think “oh my god, what a fuckwit.” As you might have guessed, I really don’t like Stacey Dash. But the thing is, I’d still probably sleep with her. You see, Stacey Dash is hot. She’s not “hot for a 50 year old.” She’s just plain old really fucking hot. She was really hot 20 years ago. She’s really hot now. I’ve wanted to fuck Stacey Dash since I was a teenager (and I’m talking pre-Clueless Stacey Dash — I’m talking Mo’ Money Stacey Dash). I wanted to fuck Stacey Dash when she was on the cover of literally every black men’s magazine that was published between 1995 and 2005. I wanted to fuck Stacey Dash when she posed for Playboy in 2005 at age 40, and I knew she was annoying by then. Stacey Dash is hot. That doesn’t just go away because it’s now become obvious since then that she’s an objectively horrible person. She’s a horrible person who looks amazing. That’s why Fox News carts her out there as their token so often. That’s why she’s the one we pay attention to when no one can name any of Fox’s other token negroes they use from time to time. They have several. Most of them just don’t have Stacey Dash’s ass. And the thing is, I may be even more interested in her now because I know she wouldn’t like me.

We all want to be in Da Club. You see a velvet rope, and you want to be on the other side. Because cool shit is happening on the other side. When you see a club with a lot of people on the inside and a long ass line to get in, the smart thing to do would be to go across the street and get drunk at the dive bar that’s nearly empty and has no wait. And some people do. Sometimes a lot of people will even go to the dive bar and it starts to become successful. A lot of times, the dive bar is actually really fun. Maybe even more fun than Da Club with the line was in the first place. Or maybe you just go home. But you come back and try again next week. Maybe you start trying to wear the right clothes. Maybe you start trying to hang out with the right people. Maybe you try to bribe the guy working the door. And you’re still stuck outside. Sooner or later everyone in line starts to hate everyone who actually is in Da Club and especially the assholes who run Da Club. But, there’s always a line. Because deep down we all still just really want to go to Da Club, and one of the biggest reasons is because we know we can’t. Being in Da Club means you’re somebody. Maybe one day, we break down and blow the DJ in the back of his van so that he puts our name on the list. But no matter whether we’re in Da Club, in the line, at the dive bar, or we’ve given up and gone home for the week, no one ever thinks to get rid of the fucking velvet rope! Because if we ever make it inside of Da Club, we NEED that rope to separate us from all the losers who can’t get in.

That’s the Oscars. The Oscars are Da Club. At the end of the day, what Jada and everyone else is fighting for is not the removal of the old white men who are the establishment. They have that in the Image Awards. They have that in the Golden Globes. They want the acceptance of the old white men who are the establishment. Everyone knows it’s pretentious. Everyone knows it’s overrated. Everyone knows that the selection process is inherently prejudicial. But everyone wants to be on the inside so they can be a part of it. It’s an awards ceremony. The entire concept is elitist. But elitism doesn’t work unless you can exclude he unwashed masses. The old white men run it have a vested interest in privileging the old white and male. That’s why Oscar bait movies work in the first place.

Those on the outside of the club looking in know the old white men hate them. They know the system is broken. But they need that validation BECAUSE it has been the mark of validation for so long. It means that they’re cooler than all the people who can’t get in. Everyone wants to give the Meryl Streep speech, “You like me, you really like me,” because even through all the fake smiles and the “honor just to be nominated” it has an implicit “and you like me better than those other four losers, and a whole lot better than those people who couldn’t get in at all… People’s Choice Award, my ass!” That is the dream. It’s not that we don’t want to be in a club that would have us as a member… we want to be in the club where we are the absolute last member. The club which says we are the elite. What makes us elite? Inertia. The Oscars matter because… well, they always have…

Maybe Stacey Dash isn’t actually as hot at 50 as she was at 25. Maybe she wasn’t even that hot at 40. But I’m so used to her being hot that no matter how horrible she is, I just can’t shake my attraction for her. So Stacey, if you want to come over and uh… Oscars and Chill… well, I’m down(TF)!

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Anyway, my picks… IIRC, I got 12 out of 24 last year. Let’s see if I can beat it.

1. Best Picture:
   • This one is hard this year. I usually try to see as many of the contenders as I can but I’ve been pretty busy. I think I’m gonna go with The Revenant. I personally loved The Martian and would love to see it take the award, but it doesn’t have the Academy appeal. It’s too outside in a year that there are good films that are inside. Spotlight and Big Short and Room are certainly contenders, but I think they cancel each other out and the Academy votes on an instant run-off style system that I think will work really well for Revenant. People who think Mad Max: Fury Road is going to take it are pipe dreaming.
2. Best Directing:
   • Alejandro G. Iñárritu – He won the DGA and he’ll win here. I actually haven’t even seen Revenant yet, but I can look at the trailers and see it’s a directing dream. All the buzz goes to Iñárritu here as well. In another year, I’d say Miller could take it for Fury Road. Not this year. He’ll be the first back-to-back repeat director winner in over 50 years.
3. Best Actor in a Leading Role:
   • It’s not even a question. Leonardo DiCaprio is inevitable. It’s not even about THIS movie… It’s more a capstone to DiCaprio spending the last several years building his Oscar portfolio. Fassbender, Damon, Redmayne, and Cranston will all have other chances in the future probably. But this is Leo’s year. The other four just get to be happy they got into Da Club.
4. Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
   • I think this one might be tricky. I think a lot of people are going to be tempted to go with Tom Hardy just because they will have Revenant on the brain, but I also think that this is the point where people are going to be looking to NOT have sweeps on their ballots. Rylance, Bale and Rufflo are fine actors, but the Academy loves a good story. Sly Stallone is that story. Plus, in old white guy logic, this is the closest thing to throwing a bone to a black movie to show that they really do care… you know, by giving the award to the only white guy. I don’t know that they even watched the movie. They’re still gonna vote for Stallone here.
5. Best Actress in a Leading Role:
   • I haven’t seen Room yet either (my DVD copy will be here on release day next week). But I know this is Brie Larson‘s year. Her acting is good enough in the trailer to win the award and it was a thin year for lead actress. Blanchett and Lawrence are there because of inertia. This is going to be the chance to give one of the big awards to a (relative) newcomer and the Academy will embrace it.
6. Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
   • I’m going with Alicia Vikander for one reason only. This is the only spot they Academy has left to not shut the Danish Girl out of the Top 5. It’s an Oscar Bait film for Redmayne, but like I said, this is Leo’s year. It’s also Iñárritu’s year and I think Revenant will take best picture too. So Vikander, who by all accounts is great will get this just so the Academy can say “thanks for the effort, if Redmayne wants to crossdress again next year we’ll think about it.”
7. Best Animated Feature:
   • Animated Feature is probably the one category in all the Oscars where being the super popular movie is actually the best way to guarantee a win. Inside Out gets this one on that alone.
8. Best Animated Short Film:
   • Here’s where it starts to get hard. I think a lot of people will go for Sanjay’s Super Team here, but Pixar never actually wins this category, and I think it will be even harder this year because they’re going to win Animated Feature. The buzz is going with that, Bear Story and World of Tomorrow, but I love the style and technique of Richard Williams’ Prologue, so that’s what I’m going with. The neat thing about the short categories is that they’re the ones where you actually have to watch all the entries in order to be able to vote, so really anything could win.
9. Best Cinematography:
   • I’m back to The Revenant here. For a moment I was thinking of going Fury Road, but I think this is one of those years where we have a clear big winner.
10. Best Costume Design:
    • The options are: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, and The Revenant. Honestly, Costume Design is crazy. It could go to any of them. The Academy likes creative when it comes to costumes. They like period pieces and artistry. I think they’ll past on Revenant and Mad Max is almost too creative and crazy, so I’m gonna go with Cinderella. This one is hard though.
11. Best Documentary Feature:
    • This one is usually hard. Generally I never get to see any of these until after the Oscars (if ever) and that’s true this year. But, I’m going with Amy, just because I think the emotional appeal of dealing with what is effectively a real life bio pic for someone that is close to being part of the Hollywood elite is going to draw people in. It just feels good to vote for her.
12. Best Documentary Short Subject:
    • Like animated short, anything can win here because all the voters get to see them all. I also never get to see them because they’re impossible for real people to track down so I have to judge on reputation and trailers. I think I’m going to go with A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness. Like I said with Amy, Academy documentary voting is about showing how sensitive and caring you are. Feeling good about your pretentious intellectualism… oh look, it’s a movie about the horrors of Pakistan. That’s culturally relevant and stuff!
13. Best Film Editing:
    • Mad Max: Fury Road! Finally… you know… because it has to win something. And that movie was nothing if not a shit ton of footage to edit.
14. Best Foreign Language Film:
    • Son of Saul. Never vote against the Holocaust.
15. Best Live Action Short Film:
    • Same with the other shorts. Impossible to really guess. But I’m going to go with… Stutterer. For no good reason… basically… I dunno… a guy with an just enough of an affliction to be endearing, but never go full retard.
16. Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
    • Mad Max: Fury Road. Huh… I didn’t actually realize they were nominated here til just now. That’s two!
17. Best Original Score:
    • Sicario. I’m actually going way against the grain here. Hateful Eight is the odds on favorite. Sicario is actually the biggest longshot, but I think it has the right feel for an upset..
18. Best Original Song:
    • I sorta want to go with The Weeknd here, just because he’s the only black guy nominated. But his song sounds awfully… well…. black for an Oscar song. There’s a reason no black people were nominated in the first place… it’s keeping Da Club exclusive (Three Six Mafia aside). So instead, I’m going to go with Lady Gaga’s “Til it Happens to You” on her inevitable run to take over the world. It’s a great song, non-offensive and it’s the kinda thing where an old white guy can say “oh, I’ve heard of this ‘GuhGah’ person. The kids like her, right?” and then they’ll be terrified when she she shows’s up wearing a meat dress and a lampshade.
19. Best Production Design:
    • Smart money here goes with Fury Road. Production Design is where we’re getting into the technical awards. As an old white guy, you might not quite get what’s going on, but you can look at it and say “well, it’s definitely pretty.”
20. Best Sound Editing:
    • No one in the world really understands the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Not even the people who do it. I think I understand… and so I’m going with The Revenant here. It needs a technical award.
21. Best Sound Mixing:
    • And for this one I go Fury Road.
22. Best Visual Effects:
    • I kinda want to go with The Martian. This is getting emotional. I really want Martian to win an award. It was maybe my favorite movie of the year. But The Force Awaken[ed] this year and I can’t see how that doesn’t win. The Academy has been waiting for 32 years to give this award to give Star Wars this award (none of the Prequels won, and Revenge of the Sith wasn’t even nominated) and I think they’re done waiting (really, it’s sort of been even longer… Star Wars won it in 1977, but Empire and Jedi were just given special achievement awards and they junked the competitive categories in those years because it just wouldn’t have been fair to have a competition).
23. Best Adapted Screenplay:
    • I’m going with The Martian. For the record, I know it isn’t going to win. The Big Short is. It’s totally Oscar bait, and he Academy needs to reward that somehow. But I’m voting for The Martian anyway, because like I said, I want it to win something and I’m out of options.
24. Best Original Screenplay:
    • I can’t do it twice. I’d love to vote for Straight Outta Compton here, but there’s just no way. Same problem as the Weeknd on song… but even more so… old white men will read the script and say “there sure are a lot of black people in this… and none of them are slaves. What’s going on?!?! And why is one character a talking ice cube? Black people are crazy! Don’t we have any Oscar bait films left?” and they’re going to vote for Spotlight.

So those are my pics and the reasons behind them as well as my long winded thoughts on #OscarsSoWhite. As always I’d love to know what people think, but also, I’m curious as to other people’s Oscar picks. I’ll put a blank template in the comments. But if you want to view all the nominees you can see them here: http://oscars.nytimes.com/2016/ballot.

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